Author: editor

In blackjack  ‘Doubling down’, also known to casino staff as ‘reaching deep’, is an option whereby a blackjack player, finding himself or herself in a favourable position after being dealt two cards, can double his or her initial stake in return for one, and only one, additional card. Some variants of blackjack allow players to double down on any total, while others only allow doubling down on totals of nine, ten or eleven. Of course, doubling down is not without risk, but conventional wisdom – or, in other words, basic blackjack strategy – dictates that doubling your initial stake is advantageous, statistically, in certain situations.

For example, if your first two cards equal a ‘hard’ ten or eleven – that is, any combination, not including an ace, which adds up to ten or eleven – doubling down is the mathematically correct play if the dealer shows anything between a two and a seven, or an eight, if your hand totals eleven. Similarly, if your first two cards equal a ‘soft’ sixteen, seventeen or eighteen – that is, you hold an ace and a five, six or seven – and the dealer shows anything between a two and a six, doubling down is the best play. Other examples of situations when you should double down include when you hold a ‘hard’ nine against a dealer’s upcard between two and six or a ‘soft’ thirteen, fourteen, fifteen, sixteen or seventeen – that is, an ace plus a two, three, four, five or six – and the dealer shows a five or six, otherwise known as a ‘bust card’.

Nowadays, baccarat is the most popular gambling game in the world, accounting for the majority of casino revenue in Macau and Singapore and, even on the Las Vegas Strip, playing second fiddle only to the ubiquitous slot machines in terms of profitability.

Like many ancient card games, the origin of baccarat is disputed. The name ‘baccarat’ is derived from the French word ‘baccara’, which dates from the mid-nineteenth century, but the origin of which is unknown. One suggestion, by independent game historian Thierry Depaulis, that the name is derived from the Provençal expression ‘fa bacarrat’, which translates into English as ‘go bankrupt’, seems at least as plausible, if not more so, than unsubstantiated rumours of an Italian heritage. In his ‘Dictionary of Conversation and Reading’, published in 1867, William Duckett claims that baccarat was originally an Italian game, imported into the south of France in the late fifteenth century, but provides no supporting evidence.

Whatever the origin of the game, the first printed records of baccarat being played in the United States appeared in ‘The New York Times’ in the late nineteenth century. Baccarat was not played in Nevada casinos until 1958 but, the following year, a new version of the game, known as ‘punto banco’ was imported to Las Vegas from Cuba by Tommy Rezoni. The original version featured a side bet on ‘naturals’, which has since been replaced by the ‘tie’ bet but, otherwise, punto banco was virtually indistinguishable from modern baccarat.

Nowadays, Bill Kaplan is the CEO of Massachusetts-based email marketing intelligence company FreshAddress, but will always be best remembered as the co-leader of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) Blackjack Team. Indeed, Kaplan provided the inspiration, at least in part, for the ‘Micky Rosa’ character, played by Kevin Spacey, in the 2008 film ‘21’, which was loosely based on the true story.

Kaplan graduated from Harvard University in 1977, but deferred his entry to Harvard Business School – from which he would eventually graduate in 1980 – to focus on building and running a blackjack team in Las Vegas. That he did, with no little success, including as a secondary activity while enrolled at Harvard, until the team disbanded shortly after his graduation.

Thereafter, a chance meeting with J.P. Massar, who was already a member of a not-altogether-successful blackjack team, of sorts, at MIT led to the formation of a new team, based on sound business principles and practices. Under the auspices of Kaplan, Massar and, later, John Chang, another MIT graduate, the MIT Blackjack Team continued to prosper.

In 1992, they formed Strategic Investments, a limited partnership that raised $1 million to bankroll the team. Strategic Investments was dissolved in late 1993, in the face of increased scrutiny from casinos and more lucrative investment opportunities elsewhere, at which point profits were distributed to players and investors. Nevertheless, in its heyday, the MIT Blackjack Team had up to 80 members and was the scourge of casinos throughout the United States for over a decade.

Notwithstanding the ‘gambler’s fallacy’, or ‘Monte Carlo fallacy’, roulette players are often reminded that each spin of a roulette wheel is an independent, random event, such that the probability of each possible outcome is not influenced by past outcomes. In other words, the probability – or odds, which are calculated as a reciprocal of probability – of any single number occurring remains the same after each spin.

Granted that the odds against a single number occurring in a single spin are 37/1 in single-zero, ‘French’ or ‘European’ roulette and 38/1 in double-zero, ‘American’ roulette, the same number occurring twice, three times or four times in a row is obviously unusual, but by no means impossible.

Indeed, according to one reliable report, not long after the opening of the iconic El San Chuan Hotel in Puerto Rico, in June, 1959, the number 10 occurred in six consecutive spins of American roulette. Multiplying the odds for single occurrence gives combined odds of an astronomical, eye-watering (38)^6 or 3,010,936,384/1. In other words, a player placing a single $1 chip on 10 black and being sufficiently gung-ho to ‘let it ride’ for six spins would have profited by over $3 billion. To put that figure in perspective, regardless of inflation, six decades later, in 2019, the gross domestic product of the United Kingdom was just $2.7 billion.